Written last, read first — the stance, the score, and the price that makes it work.
The 4-pillar score is 54 (Hold-off). Asking is in line with the comparable-based fair value of S$2.03M. Offer S$1.21M, aim for S$2.03M, and walk above S$2.82M. Fair value is a model estimate over public transaction data — not a valuation.
Scores 54 — Hold-off. Risk (69) leads, while Return (46) tempers the case. The asking sits within the model's central fair-value range.
Bayshore is about 470m away on the Thomson–East Coast Line — operational, not a someday hope.
Asking sits within the model's central fair-value range.
About 94 years left — lease decay is a distant, structural drag, not a near-term worry.
The headline is a risk-adjusted composite of four output pillars — weighted 45 / 25 / 15 / 15, not averaged.
Composite math: Pillars weight to 55 (naive mean); the risk-adjusted headline is 54. v1 model — parameters pre-calibration (T12).
Confidence: low · 6 pillar inputs still assumed (v1 model, pre-calibration).
Tap an axis — or a pillar below — to open its drivers.
A single fatal flaw caps the verdict at Hold-off, regardless of the pillar scores.
Tap a pillar to open its drivers — this is where location, MRT and lease appear: as evidence feeding a pillar, never as their own score.
Unlevered expected total return ≈ 4.4% (net yield + growth − lease decay).
Decomposing the base-case +34% five-year return: the point is that most of it is durable, rent-led growth — only +6 is one-off re-rating.
Plotted against the regional peer set, the unit sits in the growth-led quadrant — above the median on growth, around the median on yield.
What the record shows — and, clearly flagged, what we inferred.
No floor plan was supplied, so facing, light and condition below are model inferences from the stack and listing — verify on a site visit.
Afternoon sun on the living face; heat-gain and glare in late day.
Dual-aspect 3BR stack supports cross-ventilation.
Set back from the arterial road; future MRT is underground here.
Low wastage for a 3BR; regular shapes, usable yard.
Comfortable now; value decay accelerates past year 10 of your hold.
Where the unit sits today, and what could move it.
URA Data Service · Singapore Open Data Licence · snapshot 59f8436c · as-of 2026-07-28 · subject +1.1% vs the comps median
1 awarded GLS site (~515 planned homes) by 2030 within ~1.5 km — near-term competing supply. A measured indicator, not a forecast.
Visible committed GLS supply only — private/en-bloc redevelopment, HDB BTO and unawarded Confirmed/Reserve GLS are not assessed. Read this as a floor on nearby supply, not the full picture.
A nearby-supply indicator, not a price prediction. These are awarded (committed) sites; units are planned and completion years are URA's expected dates, which can slip.
What you could make, what it costs to hold, and when to sell.
| Horizon | Price (P50) | Gain | Net rent | Net IRR (P10/50/90) | Cash-on-cash | Equity × | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | S$2.17M | +6% | S$0.04M | -67.2 / -58.6 / -49.9% | -8.4% | 0.41× | ~yr 3 |
| 3 yr | S$2.43M | +19% | S$0.04M | -7.3 / 2.7 / 11.5% | -25.2% | 1.09× | cleared (yr 3) |
| 5 yr | S$2.73M | +33% | S$0.04M | 4.5 / 12.3 / 19.1% | -42% | 1.9× | cleared (yr 3) |
| 10 yrcorridor | S$3.64M | +77% | S$0.04M | 5.3 / 11.1 / 16.1% | -83.9% | 3.42× | cleared (yr 3) |
| Long-holdcorridor | S$4.84M | +136% | S$0.04M | 5.1 / 9.9 / 14.2% | -125.9% | 5.54× | cleared (yr 3) |
Net IRR is levered — on equity (downpayment + stamp & legal), net of the amortised loan, SSD and ~1.5% selling costs; P10/P50/P90 are the bear/base/bull price scenarios with rent held flat. 10yr+ rows are scenario corridors, not calibrated forecasts (T12).
Forward index, base 100 today. The base case follows the segment's ~16.3%/yr transacted-price trend (URA); bear/bull bands widen with the horizon. 10yr+ is a scenario corridor, not a calibrated forecast — and the development-catalyst pipeline (F-010) is not yet incorporated.
Live SORA unavailable — indicative rate held at the labelled fallback 3.5% (SORA-linked assumption, ~0.80% assumed bank margin (SG banks typically 0.5–1.0%)). Not a quote.
At the 4% medium-term floor the instalment is S$8,115/mo — within the S$9,900/mo TDSR ceiling (S$1,785/mo headroom).
Assumptions: Assumed CPF OA covers the downpayment beyond the cash minimum.
Net yield is gross less an assumed ~26% (vacancy allowance, MCST, property tax @ non-owner rate, management, insurance). Leasing demand is seasonal (firmer Q1/Q3). v1 assumption — calibrate at T12.
ABSD shown for a Singapore Citizen buying a first property (0%); a foreign buyer would carry 60%.
Optimal hold: years 5–9. After the SSD cliff (year 3) and before lease decay accelerates on the long-hold tail.
estimateModel estimate over public transaction data (URA caveats) — median S$2,068 psf across the segment comparables.
Based on 6 comparables: 0 same-project, 6 district.
Not yet applied: Lease decay (Bala's table / SLA); Floor-level premium.
URA Data Service · Singapore Open Data Licence · snapshot 59f8436c · as-of 2026-07-28
Not a valuation; not for mortgage, stamp-duty or legal use.
Honest by design. On a newish unit the upside is genuinely limited — most levers repay in rent, not resale.
Cosmetic refresh lifts rent more than resale — the resale gain often trails the spend. Treat it as a yield play.
Improves showing and tenant appeal; hard to attribute a clean price premium. Do it for liveability, not return.
Lifts gross yield but is tightly regulated and management-heavy. Eligibility must be confirmed.
A 2021-completed project has no realistic collective-sale path this decade. We don't price it in.
Target an expat family on a longer lease for income stability rather than chasing the top monthly rent.
Repricing if SORA eases, or decoupling to reset ABSD exposure — get specific legal advice; we don't model it.
Rated honestly, with the legal flags to clear before you commit.
At about 75% LTV the instalment moves with SORA; the qualification is stress-tested at the regulatory 4% floor.
1 awarded GLS site within ~1.5 km is expected to add ~515 planned homes by 2030 — a nearby-supply indicator, not a price prediction. These are awarded (committed) sites; the completion years are URA's expected dates and can slip.
About 94 years remain — lease decay is a distant, structural drag rather than a near-term concern.
Singapore Citizen, first property — ABSD 0%.
Private non-landed; no MOP. Foreign-buyer variant would carry 60% ABSD.
Confirm no caveat/charge on the title at the option stage.
How we verify, what we assumed, and what would sharpen it further.
Every figure above was checked for internal consistency, plausibility, provenance and an honest confidence band before this report was shown — and reconciled to its pinned source data where it derives from one. Anything that fails a critical check is held, never shipped silently wrong.
What we couldn't verify isn't a dead end — it's an upload away. Ranked by how much each would tighten the report. Watch the confidence rise.
Confirms facing & layout efficiency — currently model-inferred.
Replaces the modelled yield with your real rent.
Refines condition and the value-add estimates.
Confirms fund health behind the risk register.
Your PDF / share is a point-in-time snapshot of this living report.
Verdari is independent research to inform your own decision. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a valuation for lending. We take no agent commissions. All figures are illustrative model estimates for this prototype; every number in a live report carries its source and as-of date. © 2026 Verdari·SG.
Decision-support, not broking. The fair-value anchor, the evidence, and a plan.
The analysis, turned into a fortnight of moves — each one tied to the evidence that demands it.
Progress saves with the report — tick items off on your phone at the viewing.
Save it, send it — and put the S$300 in context.
This report: S$300. If the anchor wins even a quarter of the gap, it has paid for itself 66 times.
A print-ready, source-traced PDF of the full report.
A read-only preview for a spouse, broker or co-investor.
Verdari is independent research to inform your own decision. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a valuation for lending. We take no agent commissions. All figures are illustrative model estimates for this prototype; every number in a live report carries its source and as-of date. © 2026 Verdari·SG.